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Средняя продолжительность жизни в мире составляет 70 лет — если человек пережил этот возраст, его уже можно поздравить с долголетием. Но жизнь дается нам только один раз, поэтому практически всем людям хотелось бы, чтобы она длилась как можно дольше. Американский изобретатель и футуролог Рэй Курцвейл уже давно считает, что человечество сможет обрести бессмертие в 2029 году. Также в ближайшем будущем он ожидает развития искусственного интеллекта до уровня человеческого разума, после чего люди станут в несколько раз умнее, благодаря чему начнут справляться с поставленными перед ними задачами за считанные секунды. Почему же он во всем так уверен, и неужели к этому есть какие-то предпосылки? Стоит ли верить его прогнозам?
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Предпосылки к тому, что в будущем человечество обретет бессмертие, уже есть
Содержание
- 1 Кто такой Рэймонд Курцвейл
- 2 Когда люди станут бессмертными
- 3 Когда произойдет технологическая сингулярность
- 4 Прогнозы о будущем человечества
- 5 Технологии будущего в современном мире
Кто такой Рэймонд Курцвейл
Рэймонд Курцвейл — американский изобретатель и футуролог, который родился в 1948 году и с самого детства интересовался технологиями. После окончания института в 1970 году, он основал компанию по разработке технологий распознавания речи. Еще он известен тем, что создал первый музыкальный синтезатор, издающий звуки настоящих инструментов с предельной точностью. Но больше всего люди знают его как человека, который прогнозирует человечеству светлое будущее с нейросетями и бесконечной жизнью. На сегодняшний день Рэймонд Курцвейл работает в Google в качестве директора в области машинного обучения и обработки естественного языка.
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Футуролог Рэймонд Курцвейл
Интересный факт: многие влиятельные люди критикуют идеи Рэймонда Курцвейла. Например, с его прогнозами был не согласен создатель «Проекта Венера» Жак Фреско. Также футуролога жестко критиковал писатель Нассим Талеб в своей книге «Антихрупкость».
Когда люди станут бессмертными
Впервые о том, что люди обретут бессмертие в 2029 году, он объявил в 2016 году — на нашем сайте есть небольшая статья на эту тему. По его прогнозам, к этому времени в медицине начнут применяться крошечные роботы, которые будут выпускаться внутрь кровеносной системы человека. Путешествуя по разным частям организма, роботы будут «ремонтировать» поврежденные клетки тела, предотвращая развитие опасных заболеваний и останавливая старость. По сути, эти роботы заменят собой иммунитет и будут работать как компьютерные антивирусы, которые регулярно обновляются и учатся устранять новые угрозы.
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По мнению Рэймонда Курцвейла, человечество обретет бессмертие благодаря роботам, которые заменят собой естественный иммунитет человека
Читайте также: По мнению некоторых физиков цифровое бессмертие возможно
Когда произойдет технологическая сингулярность
Также Рэймонд Курцвейл считает, что в то же время искусственный интеллект сможет пройти тест Тьюринга и произойдет технологическая сингулярность — момент, когда технологическое развитие станет стремительным и неуправляемым. По его мнению, этого не нужно бояться, потому что прогресс принесет только пользу. При помощи упомянутых выше нанороботов, человеческий мозг можно будет подключить к Интернету и отправлять электронную почту, искать любую информацию и даже создавать запасные копии воспоминаний без использования обычных компьютеров.
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Рэймонд Курцвейл предполагает, что полноценный искусственный интеллект тоже будет создан примерно в 2029 году
Статья в тему: Уничтожит ли нас искусственный интеллект и почему некоторые ученые считают, что да?
Прогнозы о будущем человечества
Звучит как нечто невероятное, и не знающие Рэймонда Курцвейла люди даже могут подумать, что он сумасшедший. На самом же деле, многие прогнозы этого футуролога насчет будущего человечества оказались точными. Например, в 1990 году он оказался прав, сказав что к началу 21 века компьютер сможет победить чемпиона мира по шахматам. В свое время он также утверждал, что в ближайшем будущем люди будут пользоваться смартфонами, портативными компьютерами, а также беспроводными устройствами — так все и произошло.
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В 1997 году компьютер Deep Blue победил чемпиона мира по шахматам Гарри Каспарова
В 2010 году Рэймонд Курцвейл самостоятельно изучил все свои прогнозы насчет будущего человечества. За двадцать лет он выдвинул 147 предположений, среди которых 115 оказались верными. Всего лишь 12 прогнозов оказались верными только отчасти, а 3 предположения были полностью неверными. Например, один из прогнозов гласил, что в 2009 году люди будут активно пользоваться беспилотными автомобилями — даже спустя десяток лет с предполагаемой даты, в городах максимум тестируют только автономный общественный транспорт.
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Как бы этого не желал Рэймонд Курцвейл, автономный транспорт до сих пор не стал массовым явлением
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Технологии будущего в современном мире
Сказать точно, насколько Рэймонд Курцвейл прав насчет бессмертия человечества в 2029 году, невозможно. Авторы научного издания IFL Science ему не верят и считают его прогноз ошибочным. С другой стороны, предпосылки к резкому скачку в сфере развития технологий есть. Например, только пару лет назад никто даже не смел предполагать, что очень скоро в мире появится нейросеть ChatGPT — она не только способна писать тексты на любую тему, но и может играть роль личного психолога. Недавно нейросеть ChatGPT спасла мальчику жизнь, определив его болезнь, что в очередной раз показало широту возможностей искусственного интеллекта.
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Безо всяких преувеличений, нейросеть ChatGPT сильно изменила мир
Успехи в области медицинских роботов крошечного размера тоже есть. В 2019 году на нашем сайте вышла статья «Этот робот проникает в мозг человека и лечит инсульт». В ней мы рассказали о том, как простая конструкция из никеля и титана может войти в кровеносную систему и удалять из мозга сгустки крови. В будущем ученые могут создать более продвинутых роботов, которые распространяются по кровеносной системе и останавливают процессы старения организма.
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Гибкий робот, который в будущем сможет спасать людей от инсульта
Вдобавок ко всему этому, компания Neuralink под управлением Илона Маска уже несколько лет разрабатывает систему для подключения мозга человека к компьютеру. Каждый год специалисты делятся впечатляющими результатами — в 2022 году они показали, как обезьяна печатает на компьютере при помощи мыслей. А в 2023 году компания хочет провести «чипирование» человека в прямом эфире.
Обязательно подпишитесь на наши каналы в Дзен и Telegram. Нас уже более 100 тысяч человек!
Верите ли вы в то, что в 2029 году технологии смогут обеспечить человечеству бессмертие? Своим мнением делитесь в нашем Telegram-чате.
