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08.11.2023
26 4 minutes read

Исследователи подсчитали, что влияние деятельности человека на земные экосистемы может привести к непредсказуемому хаосу – в работе 2022 года, пока что не прошедшей экспертной оценки, говорится, что после определенного момента восстановить климатическое равновесие на Земле будет невозможно. Отметим, что последствия климатических изменений продолжают шокировать ученых, так как аномальная жара и экстремальные погодные явления усиливаются с каждым годом. Более того, согласно результатам еще одного исследования, шесть из девяти так называемых планетарных границ пройдены. И хотя «нарушение границ» не равносильно быстрым и радикальным изменениям, вместе они обозначают критический порог для поддержания единственных условий окружающей среды, в которых, как мы знаем, человеческая цивилизация может процветать.

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Если земные экосистемы начнут вести себя хаотично, не будет никакой надежды на светлое будущее

Теория планетарных границ — это концепция, включающая процессы системы Земли, которые содержат границы окружающей среды, разработанная в 2009 году.

Содержание

  • 1 Эпоха антропоцена
  • 2 Фазовые переходы и климатический кризис
  • 3 Планетарные границы
  • 4 Глобальный хаос

Эпоха антропоцена

Так как влияние человеческой деятельности на состояние земных экосистем невозможно отрицать, исследователи полагают, что начиная с 1950-х годов ХХ века мы вступили в новую геологическую эпоху – эпоху антропоцена. И дело не только в изменении климата — в последние десятилетия люди стали причиной изменений ландшафта, массового вымирания дикой природы и загрязнения окружающей среды.

Доказательством тому служит не только недавнее заявление ученых-климатологов, согласно которому 2023 год стал самым теплым на планете за последние 100 000 лет, но и продолжающиеся экстремальные погодные явления, частота и продолжительность которых увеличиваются. Лесные пожары достигли небывалых масштабов, а волны жары, засухи и ураганы с каждым годом становятся все более интенсивными.

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Человеческая деятельность оказала влияние на все земные экосистемы

Стоит ли удивляться, что сжигание ископаемого топлива, вырубка лесов и расширение сельскохозяйственной деятельности привело человечество в антропоцен – период, в течение которого деятельность человека оказала заметное воздействие на все системы Земли. Напомним, что антропоцен следует за голоценом, который начался около 11 700 лет назад, а его начало пришлось на пик ядерной эры.

Больше по теме: Эпоха антропоцена: почему средняя температура на Земле растет?

Фазовые переходы и климатический кризис

Учитывая имеющиеся на сегодняшний день данные, исследователи смоделировали переход от голоцена к антропоцену как фазовый и соответствующим образом рассчитали его будущую траекторию. Отметим, что фазовые переходы чрезвычайно распространены и обозначают переход материала из одного состояния в другое (металл, например, переходит из нормального состояния в сверхпроводящее).

И хотя земная система не является каким-либо отдельным материалом, исследования показывают, что моделирование фазовых переходов можно использовать для прогнозирования климатических изменений. Так, авторы работы, опубликованной на сервере препринтов ArXiV, использовали теорию Гинзбурга-Ландау, разработанную для моделирования сверхпроводимости, и применили ее к антропоцену на основе температуры, начиная с точки равновесия голоцена.

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Нет, это не те круги на полях, о которых вы подумали

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Полученные результаты показали, что… мы движемся к климатической катастрофе. Хотя и не неизбежной. В случае, если нам не удастся остановить рост средней температуры, планету ожидает хаос. А экстремальные сезонные колебания и погодные явления исключают предсказание будущего поведения системы, делая невозможным его смягчение.

Это означает, что было бы чрезвычайно трудно, если не невозможно, вернуться к стабильной климатической обстановке, – пишут авторы исследования.

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Отметим, что далеко не все ученые согласны с тем, что наступила эпоха антропоцена

Безусловно, подобный исход не является неизбежным, и это хорошо. По мнению исследователей их работа дарит реальную возможность для разработки стратегий по смягчению последствий изменения климата в будущем.

Читайте также: Как изменение климата повлияет на кофе и другие продукты

Планетарные границы

Еще одно интересное исследование, опубликованное в конце 2023 года, демонстрирует систему планетарных границ, впервые нанесенную на карту.
Результаты исследования показали, что шесть из девяти глобальных экологических границ пройдены, а одна из них, подкисление океана, находится очень близко к своей границе (подкисление океана – следствие увеличения выбросов углекислого газа (СО2), вызывающего изменение климата).

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Обновление системы планетарных границ. Зеленая зона – безопасное пространство. Переход от желтого к красному обозначает зону повышенного риска. Фиолетовый указывает на зону высокого риска с вероятным нарушением условий голоцена, что отражает беспрецедентное нарушение человеком системы Земли.

В работе, опубликованной в журнале Science Advances, объясняется, что каждая граница определяет глобальный экологический процесс, который “имеет решающее значение для поддержания стабильности и жизнестойкости земной системы в целом”.

Если бы все девять границ соблюдались, Земля могла бы оставаться в относительно стабильных и теплых планетарных условиях, которые преобладали в течение последних 12 000 лет, когда развивались все человеческие цивилизации. Вместо этого голоцен, уступает место “состоянию, не имеющему аналогов в истории человечества” – эпохе антропоцена, – говорится в статье.

Полученные в ходе работы данные свидетельствуют о том, что дальнейшая нестабильность отдельных процессов потенциально может привести к системным планетарным изменениям «путем фундаментальной перестройки динамики и пространственно-временных моделей геосферно-биосферных взаимодействий и их обратных связей».

Это интересно: Изменение климата приводит к уменьшению мозга — люди начнут деградировать?

Глобальный хаос

Авторы работы отмечают, что в настоящее время антропогенное воздействие на окружающую среду в первую очередь рассматривается как отдельные проблемы, например, изменением климата или утрата биоразнообразия. Этот подход, однако, игнорирует нелинейные взаимодействия этих земных систем и совокупные эффекты на общее состояние Земли.

Планетарные границы привносят научное понимание антропогенного глобального воздействия на окружающую среду в рамки, которые требуют рассмотрения состояния земной системы в целом. Авторы доклада отмечают, что сильно обеспокоены экстремальными климатическими явлениями, поразившими планету в уходящем году.

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Состояние земных экосистем вызывает тревогу ученых

Нарушение планетарных границ приближает нас к переломным моментам и лишает возможности хоть как-то удержать рост средней температуры в границах 1,5°C, – пишут специалисты.

К счастью, сегодня влияние человека ограничено: в мире есть пригодное для жизни пространство, конечное количество ресурсов и скорость, с которой мы можем их использовать (учитывая эту максимальную вместимость, на логистическую карту были нанесены возможные последствия фазового перехода антропоцена).

Вам будет интересно: Глобальное будущее человечества — куда мы движемся?

Вот только никто не знает как долго человечество сможет продолжать нарушать ключевые планетарные границы, прежде чем совокупное давление приведет к необратимым изменениям. Словом, наше не столь отдаленное будущее выглядит как минимум туманно и довольно тревожно.

Источник

08.11.2023
26 4 minutes read
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09.11.2023

От каких болезней чаще всего умирают космонавты — Hi-News.ru»>/**/ article{display:block}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}html,body{font:400 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}html,body,div,span,iframe,h1,p,a,img,ins,strong,b,form,article,time{margin:0;padding:0;border:0;font-size:100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1;min-width:1124px}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}b,strong{font-weight:700}img{overflow:hidden;height:auto;max-width:100%;font:400 10px -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}p{color:#000;margin-bottom:15px;font:400 20px/1.5 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}h1{color:#000;margin:0 0 28px 0;font:700 54px/1 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15.11.2023

Туристы в испуге возвращают вещи, взятые в Помпеях — считается, что они прокляты — Hi-News.ru»>/**/ article{display:block}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}html,body{font:400 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}html,body,div,span,iframe,h1,p,a,img,ins,strong,b,form,article,time{margin:0;padding:0;border:0;font-size:100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1;min-width:1124px}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}b,strong{font-weight:700}img{overflow:hidden;height:auto;max-width:100%;font:400 10px -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}p{color:#000;margin-bottom:15px;font:400 20px/1.5 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}h1{color:#000;margin:0 0 28px 0;font:700 54px/1 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21.01.2024

Как алгоритмы социальных сетей влияют на поведение человека? — Hi-News.ru»>/**/ article{display:block}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}html,body{font:400 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}html,body,div,span,iframe,h1,p,a,img,ins,strong,b,form,article,time{margin:0;padding:0;border:0;font-size:100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased}body{font-size:14px;line-height:1;min-width:1124px}ol,ul{list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}b,strong{font-weight:700}img{overflow:hidden;height:auto;max-width:100%;font:400 10px -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}p{color:#000;margin-bottom:15px;font:400 20px/1.5 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif}h1{color:#000;margin:0 0 28px 0;font:700 54px/1 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24.08.2023
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